The Detroit Tigers have had every reason to fail this season. They tailed off last year after a blistering start, eventually coughing up a double digit games lead to the Twins and settling for a wild card, then reaching the World Series only to go down meekly to a vastly inferior Cardinals team. In 2007, they've had to do without the anchor of last year's rotation, Kenny Rogers, their best relief pitcher, Joel Zumaya, and a DL stint for another rotation member, Jeremy Bonderman. Yet, here they stand as we head into Memorial Day weekend, near the top of the AL Central and comfortably ensconced as the would-be AL wildcard. How have they managed to overcome all this adversity? Let's take a look:
DETROIT TIGERS 29-21 2nd PLACE AL CENTRAL -2.5
SCHEDULE
The Tigers have survived an injury-riddled first part of the season because they've managed to beat up on their own division. They've been able to beat up on their own division because they've had a lot of games against its two weakest teams, and none against the second place Indians (the two meet for the first time in 07 this weekend). Not to piss on the Tigers parade, but they've had what might be the easiest schedule in MLB so far this year. To wit:
- 5 games against the 21-25 Blue Jays
- 6 against the 21-26 Orioles
- 6 with the 22-24 Twins
- 3 at home against a Cardinals team off to a disastrous 19-25 start
- and the coup de gras...NINE games against the 19-29 Royals
So by my count, that's 29 of 46 games so far against some of the dregs of baseball. In April the Tigers played a total of six games against teams that are over .500 right now, dropping 2 of 4 against a White Sox team whom we all know has not exactly been running roughshod over MLB this year, and splitting a 2 game series with the Angels. May hasn't been much toughe. Their only meetings with winning teams came when they dropped 3 of 4 in Boston last week, a series win against the Angels, and a damaging 3 game sweep at home to the Indians last weekend.
We'll soon find out how good this team really is or isn't. More on that in the 30 day outlook section.
LINEUP
GOOD GUYS
Magglio Ordonez has been the best hitter in baseball so far this year. That might sound strange, but it's true. Maggs has THIRTY FIVE extra base hits already this year, including an insane 23 doubles. He has an OPS of 1.151, which is 30 points higher than the next highest (Barry Bonds), is on pace to drive in over 160 runs, and is hitting .361. Shortstop Carlos Guillen is showing his 120 point improvement in OPS last year wasn't a fluke, he's performing at the same level this year. The most valuable center fielder in the AL Central so far this year hasn't been the one that was on the cover of SI earlier this month, Grady Sizemore, it's been the Tigers' Curtis Granderson. Granderson strikes out a lot, perhaps too much for a leadoff man, but you won't find too many combinations of power and speed like him. He has a .930 OPS, and 30 extra base hits.
BAD GUYS
Ordonez' heroics are even more valuable to the Tigers given the fact that there are a lot of positions on this team that aren't producing. Gary Sheffield has heated up recently, but he hit .200 with a .675 OPS in the month of April. Catcher Ivan Rodriguez is 150 points below his career OPS at .674, first baseman Sean Casey has been horrid, as has the left field platoon of Marcus Thames and Craig Monroe. Third baseman Brandon Inge's 8 home runs have given him a respectable .727 OPS, but he's also batting .224. I see some problematic stuff here, as it's no guarantee any of these guys will snap out of it, as they are all either old (I-Rod and Sheffield) or generally mediocre (Thames, Monroe, Casey, Inge).
ROTATION
#1 Justin Verlander
After tiring at the end of last season, Verlander is back to the form that he displayed before the all-star break last year. He's 5-1 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
#2 Jeremy Bonderman
Has had a DL stint this year, a victim of the epidemic of finger injuries on the Tigers' staff, which makes you wonder what goes on in their clubhouse. When healthy, he's been very good, attested to by his 3-0 record and 1.21 WHIP.
#3 Nate Robertson
Has been getting lit up of late after a strong start. Hasn't completed 6 innings in any of his last 4 outings, and still managed to give up 10 or more hits in 3 of them.
#4 Mike Maroth
The Tigers thought he'd be an asset this year after missing most of last year with an injury, but he's been terrible so far in 07, with opposing hitters knocking him around for a .315 average.
#5 Chad Durbin
His surprising competency has been the difference between the Tigers jockeying with the Indians for first place in the AL Central, and them tussling with the Twins and White Sox to stay out of fourth place. Given Maroth's struggles, he may stay in the rotation even after Kenny Rogers returns.
CLOSER
It's of unending annoyance to me that the Tigers have been able to have Todd Jones as their closer and still thrive. His success leads me to believe that this job isn't as hard as everyone says it is. He has 15 saves despite an ERA over 4 and only 7 strikeouts so far this season. Seven. I've seen 16 inch softball pitchers strike out more guys.
BULLPEN
Injuries and ineffectiveness have made the Tigers bullpen suck so badly they could move to Chicago and still have the worst bullpen in town. The pen has had 11 losses pinned on it already this year. With Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney injured, the Tigers are relying on Jason Grilli and his 7.59 ERA, Wilfredo Ledezma and Bobby Seay who are both in the 5's, and Jose Mesa whose clocking in with an ERA over 10.
BENCH
The Tigers don't rely very heavily on their bench, which might have contributed to their second half swoon last year. Marcus Thames gives the Tigers some power but he's hitting .200, Omar Infante is hitting .327, but he hasn't drawn a single walk so far this year, which means he's not actually getting on base all that often.
DOWN ON THE FARM
Lefty Andrew Miller is one of the top 10 prospects in baseball according to Baseball America. He pitched 6 shutout innings in his one start in the bigs this year. OF Cameron Maybin is 19 years old and is also one of BA's top 10. He's hitting .307 with an .890 OPS at Class A Lakeland.
30 DAY OUTLOOK
2 at TB (13-14 at home)
4 at CLE (17-4)
3 at TEX (11-15)
3 vs. NYM (18-7)
3 vs. MIL (11-15)
3 at PHI (13-11)
3 at WSH (11-13)
3 at ATL (15-11)
4 vs. TEX (7-18)
Opponents Combined Record: 116-108
Expected Record Next 30 Days: 15-13
Expected Record After 30 Days: 44-34
No comments:
Post a Comment