NFL Draft Countdown

Hola! The NFL Draft is less than a week away. Quarterly forecasting at the jobby job has left me feeling like I suffer from Rocco Baldelli's mitochondrial disorder, but regardless, it's time for me to pull up my bootstraps and start preparing.

But how? My knowledge of college football is minimal. Therefore, my knowledge of the players entering the draft is also minimal. One thing I am good at though, is passing judgement on how well or poorly NFL franchises are run. So what I've decided to do is do what folks at sites such as Baseball Prospectus.com do, which is use the past to predict the future.

Come with me, as I rub my crystal balls, and stare back into the past, to give you, the future.

MIAMI DOLPHINS
This year, for what I think is the very first time ever, the Dolphins have the first overall pick in the draft. Last year, the Fins had the 9th pick, and used it to draft 5 foot 2 Ohio State receiver Ted Ginn Junior. That worked out super.

This year, though, Miami has a new GM, whose strings will be pulled by Bill Parcells, who of course, is regarded as a genius thanks to winning a Super Bowl twenty years ago thanks to a coked up to the bejeezus Lawrence Taylor.

Parcells' last draft was with the Cowboys in 2006, and the Cowboys had the 18th overall pick, which they used to select linebacker Bobby Carpenter. Carpenter is currently about thiiiis close to becoming a San Jose Sabrecat, so that doesn't bode very well for the Dolphins here.

Prior to that though, Busty McManboobs actually had a nice little string of first round successes. The 11th pick in 05 brought DE DeMarcus Ware, who had 14 sacks last year, and the 20th pick that year brought DT Marcus Spears, who started all 16 for the Boys last year.

The Dolphins are either going to take Virginia DE Chris Long with the first pick, or Michigan OT Jake Long. Parcells' track record says he will go defense so....

WITH THE FIRST PICK IN THE 2008 DRAFT, THE MIAMI DOLPHINS SELECT...CHRIS LONG, DEFENSIVE END, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA....

Now the St. Louis Rams are on the clock. Scott Linehan is still their coach? Really. Okay then.

Last year the Rams used the 13th pick to take Nebraska DT Adam Carriker. Carriker was solid last year, starting all 16 games for a very mediocre defense. The 15th pick in 2006 brought Clemson corner Tye Hill, who has struggled with injuries and badness. The 19th pick in 05 was Alex Barron, who has started all 16 games at tackle two years in a row for the Rams.

This one is pretty much a no-brainer, which works out good for me. Orlando Pace may be going to the Hall of Fame, but he's been hurt since 2005, which at his age pretty much means he's done. Luckily for the Rams, a potential replacement falls into their laps here.



WITH THE SECOND PICK IN THE 2008 DRAFT, THE ST. LOUIS RAMS SELECT, JAKE LONG, OFFENSIVE TACKLE, MICHIGAN

Awesome brah. The Atlanta Falcons are now on the clock...

The Falcons had a disastrous year in 2007. Michael Vick went up the river, and new coach Bobby Petrino quickly became former coach Bobby Petrino. Their new coach is former Jaguars defensive coordinator Mike Smith. The Jaguars defense under Smith was a throwback all the way back to the sepia-toned days of 2000, when the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl with a pair of girthy defensive tackles freeing up their linebackers to make plays. Jacksonville had the same thing with tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. There also happens to be a highly touted, big bellied defensive tackle that will be available with the third pick in the draft.



WITH THE THIRD PICK IN THE 2008 DRAFT, THE ATLANTA FALCONS SELECT GLENN DORSEY, DEFENSIVE TACKLE, LSU

Excelsior! The Oakland Raiders are now ON THE CLOCK...

As Al Davis stirs from the crypt, let us look at the Raiders' recent drafts. Last year, they had the first overall pick, and used it on QB JaMarcus Russell. So far, JaMarcus Russell has looked like the next David Carr, only blacker. 06 also saw the Raiders in the top 10, because the Raiders are usually always really bad. They drafted Texas safety Michael Huff, who improved greatly last season after a slow start as a rookie. 05's 23rd pick was Washington corner Fabian Washington, who lost his starting job last year.

That's all nice info, but I think the pick you really have to look at is the 04 #2 overall pick, O-tackle Robert Gallery. Gallery was looked at as a can't miss prospect going into that draft. So far, he's missed. Boise St. tackle Ryan Clady is still on the board here, but the Gallery pick is going to preclude them from picking another offensive tackle. Creepy Al wants to win now, and he saw how Adrian Peterson carried the Vikings on his back last year. They already have Justin "Huggy Bear" Fargas to play the Chester Taylor role, so the choice here seems obvious.



WITH THE 4TH PICK IN THE 2008 DRAFT, THE OAKLAND RAIDERS SELECT DARREN MCFADDEN, RUNNING BACK, ARKANSAS

Goo! Put the Chiefs on the clock yo!

Since Herm Edwards became KC's coach, they have had a pair of very successful first round picks. In 2006, they took DE Tamba Hali, who has had 15 1/2 sacks in his 2 year career. Last year, they went offense, and grabbed wideout Dwayne Bowe with the 25th pick. Bowe came up just 5 yards short of a 1000 yard season last year, and that was with the redoubtable Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard throwing the ball at him.

Herm's personality seems to indicate he'd be a conservative drafter. You know, always take the offensive tackle if he's available or some bullshit like that. He can definitely do that here, and nobody would fault him for it. God knows the Chiefs could use hel at that position. Remember though, that Herm is the same guy that drafted a kicker in the second round in 2005. He's the same guy who is BFF with Tony Dungy, who has gotten his Super Bowl ring thanks to having a tippy top QB. He's the same guy who plays in a division where his 3 opponents have all recently spent first round picks on a QB (Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, and JaMarcus Russell).

He's the same guy who has a potential superstar receiver, a future Hall of Fame tight end who still has skills, a running back in Larry Johnson who can be one of the best in the league if he's motivated and healthy, and BRODIE CROYLE at quarterback. You tell me what doesn't fit here. Given that, I say the Chiefs stun everyone and choose this guy:



Yes! Let us all vomit with surprise! WITH THE 5TH PICK IN THE 2008 DRAFT, THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS SELECT MATT RYAN, QUARTERBACK, BOSTON COLLEGE

And the room gasps.

The NY Jets are now on the clock.

With Ryan being the guy the roomfull of angry Jets fans wanted, they now begin cracking each others skulls open and feasting on the goo inside. Whoever gets picked by them now will probably get booed. Manginius supposedly wants to build an athletic New England-style defense, and hasn't yet gotten to do that through the draft. Last year's top selection was corner Derrelle Reavis, and the year prior saw them go offense on each of their first 3 picks. That means you can bet they are going to get somebody who can rush the passer here, being that their top guy had only 5 1/2 sacks last year. They get a pretty lucky bounce here, because the best pass rusher in the draft who isn't Howie Long's son is still available.



WITH THE 6TH PICK IN THE 2008 DRAFT, THE NEW YORK JETS SELECT VERNON GHOLSTON, DEFENSIVE END, THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY...

Rabble..rabble..rabble..rabble....

So let's see who's up next. Holy shit are you kidding me? The Patriots? How the fudge did that happen? Geez I would videotape the other teams too if my "punishment" entailed my 18-1 team getting the 7th pick in the draft...my God...

Okay then..the Patriots are on the clock..