Sunday, September 12, 2010

Week 1 Picks

RAIDERS AT TITANS -6 1/2
Last year the Titans ranked 1st in the league in Y/A on offense, the Raiders ranked 28th in Y/A on defense. All the preseason "Watch out for the Raiders" punditry in the world isn't going to fix that.
TITANS 30, RAIDERS 13

DOLPHINS -3 AT BILLS
I would say something like "watch out the Bills could surprise you" or something, but now I see the line is only Dolphins by 3 so that isn't too big of a surprise if the Bills hang close. When these teams met in Buffalo last year, the Bills won 31-14 and Chad Henne had a brutal game, getting picked off 3 times. I think the Dolphins can cover 3 points against the Bills though.
DOLPHINS 20, BILLS 13

BRONCOS AT JAGUARS -3
MJD should be able to have a pretty big day against a Broncos D that ranked 27th in Y/A against the run last year. Denver lost 7 out of 9 to end last season, and since then has lost their best player on both the offensive (Brandon Marshall) and defensive (Elvis Dumervil) sides of the ball.
JAGUARS 30, BRONCOS 20

PANTHERS AT GIANTS -6 1/2
The Giants favored by almost a touchdown here? Did we not see the Panthers go into Ye Olde Meadowlands and beat them 41-9 at the end of last season? Did the Giants pick up 38 points on them in the offseason?
PANTHERS 27, GIANTS 23

COLTS -2 AT TEXANS
Here's the way I see this thing going down. The Texans dominate the stat sheet, but the Colts hang around thanks to a couple key turnovers, probably fumbles by Arian Foster. The Texans are unable to put them away in the 4th quarter because they can't run the ball effectively, leading to Peyton Manning surgically dismembering them on a gamewinning drive to end the game.
COLTS 31, TEXANS 27

FALCONS -1 AT STEELERS
Let's not forget this is a Steelers team that lost at home to the Chiefs and Browns last year, and that was with Not So Gentle Ben and Santonio Holmes. Now they've got an offense that's relying heavily on Dennis Dixon, Mike Wallace, and possibly Morly Safer. Falcons will bring the reality check today.
FALCONS 27, STEELERS 10

BROWNS -2 1/2 AT BUCS
Tampa was DFL in Y/A against the run last year, and I think you could see another 200+ yard rushing day out of Jerome Harrison today. Tampa could actually have a pretty exciting offense this year, they've got a lot of weapons in the passing game for Josh Freeman, but if you can't stop the run you've got no chance.
BROWNS 23, BUCS 17

BENGALS AT PATRIOTS -5 1/2
The Patriots defense didn't inspire alot of confidence giving up 36 points to the Rams in the preseason. All you hear about the Bengals right now is about their offense, with OchoTO, and a couple hot young rookies. Let's not forget though, that the Bengals defense was great last year, ranking 7th in Y/A against both the run and the pass. All the facts point to the Bengals winning this game, but, I'm not picking against the Patriots in week 1. They haven't lost their opener since 2003. That's Belichick. Pats win but Bengals cover.
PATRIOTS 20, BENGALS 17

LIONS AT BEARS -6 1/2
There's a lot of pressure on the Bears today. Mr. Schedulemaker gives you a Week 1 matchup at home against a team that is 2-30 the last seasons, well, if you don't win that one, you might want to think about not even bothering with the rest of them. The thing is, the Bears are in a place where I don't know if any game is an automatic win for them. I think they do start 1-o, but it's not going to be a confidence builder.
BEARS 27, LIONS 24

PACKERS -3 AT EAGLES
All eyes are going to be on Kevin Kolb, but don't forget that this is a matchup of two really good defenses. I think the Packers just barely get the win here, and it's going to be low scoring.
PACKERS 17, EAGLES 16

49ERS -3 AT SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks are probably the biggest mystery team to me in the entire league. I have no idea what they're going to do this year. They're just kind of tucked up there in the Pacific Northwest with their ugly uniforms and their always injured QB, and their college coach, and a team that nobody picked anybody from in either of my fantasy drafts, their just kind of there. For that reason, I pick them to win today. Now that's some logic.
SEAHAWKS 20, 49ERS 17

CARDINALS -3 1/2 AT RAMS
This is the year everyone finds out what a good coach Ken "The Desert Fox" Whisenhunt really is. He's going to win 10+ games with Derek Anderson at QB.
CARDS 27, RAMS 13

COWBOYS -3 1/2 AT REDSKINS
If you look at the Y/A numbers, the only thing the Redskins were really bad at last year was running the ball. Everything else, they were kind of average. Shanahan probably fixes that, but not yet, and not against a very talented Cowboys team.
COWBOYS 24, REDSKINS 16

1 comment:

Patrick N said...

guess who got kevin kolb for his fantasy team :( thanks for the one play and a whole -1 pts asshole