Sunday, October 18, 2009

Nicky P = Money

I been keeping track of Nicky P's picks and scores. I only have Weeks 1, 4, and 5, but here are the final numbers:

30-11, 73% correct

Getting rid of the outliners, in other words, taking away the 5 most accurate differentials (0, 0, 0, 0, 1) and 5 most inaccurate differentials (37, 31, 19, 19, 19) yields the following truncated mean:

215 points difference/31 games,
6.9 points difference of actual point differential

Untouched:

341 point difference/41 games,
8.3 points difference of actual point differential

This means that almost 3 out of 4 Nicky P picks are right, and his score guesses are within a touchdown. Follow this motherfucker's scores and picks.

Here's the raw data if you want to stat check me:

Week 1

NICKY'S PICKY- FALCONS 27, DOLPHINS 14; 19-7, ATL

13, 12 = 1
NICKY'S PICKY- RAVENS 30, CHIEFS 10; 38-24, BAL

20, 14 = 6
NICKY'S PICKY- EAGLES 30, PANTHERS 17; 38-10, PHI

13, 28 = 15
NICKY'S PICKY- BENGALS 27, BRONCOS 17; 12-7, DEN

10, 5 = 5
NICKY'S PICKY- VIKINGS 30, BROWNS 13; 34-20, MIN

17, 14 = 3
NICKY'S PICKY- TEXANS 24, JETS 20; 24-7, NYJ

4, 20 = 16
NICKY'S PICKY- COLTS 23, JAGS 13; 14-12, IND

10, 2 = 8
NICKY'S PICKY- SAINTS 38, LIONS 20; 45-27, NO

18, 18 = 0
NICKY'S PICKY- COWBOYS 27, BUCS 10; 34-21, DAL

17, 13 = 4
NICKY'S PICKY- 49ERS 27, CARDINALS 24; 20-16, SF

3, 4 = 1
NICKY'S PICKY- GIANTS 17, REDSKINS 14; 23-17 NYG

3, 6 = 3
NICKY'S PICKY- SEAHAWKS 27, RAMS 17; 28-0, SEA

10, 28 = 18
NICKY'S PICKY- PACKERS 27, BEARS 20; 21-15, GB

7, 6 = 1
NICKY'S PICKY- PATRIOTS 33, BILLS 13; 25-24, NE

20, 1 = 19
RAIDERS 27, CHARGERS 17; 24-20, SD

10, 4 = 6

12-3

Week 4

BEARS 34, LIONS 16; 48-24, CHI

18, 14 = 4

BENGALS 20, BROWNS 10; 23-20, CIN

10, 3 = 7

TEXANS 20, RAIDERS 13; 29-6, HOU

7, 23 = 19
COLTS 30, SEAHAWKS 13; 34-17, IND

17, 17 = 0
TITANS 17, JAGS 16; 37-17, JAC

1, 20 = 19
GIANTS 37, CHIEFS 10; 27-16, NYG

27, 11 = 16
PATRIOTS 24, RAVENS 20; 27-21, NE

4, 6 = 2
REDSKINS 19, BUCS 10; 16-13, WAS

9, 3 = 6
BILLS 27, DOLPHINS 17; 38-10, MIA

10, 18 = 8
STEELERS 20, CHARGERS 17; 38-28, PIT

3, 10 = 7
BRONCOS 23, COWBOYS 17; 17-10, DEN

6, 7 = 1
SAINTS 30, JETS 17; 24-10, NO

13, 14 = 1
49ERS 27, RAMS 3; 35-0, SF

24, 35 = 11

11-2

Week 5

RAVENS 27, BENGALS 13; 17-14, CIN

14, 3 = 11

BILLS 23, BROWNS 17; 6-3, CLE

6, 3 = 3

REDSKINS 20, PANTHERS 17; 20-17, CAR

3, 3 = 0

STEELERS 33, LIONS 13; 28-20, PIT

20, 8 = 12

COWBOYS 27, CHIEFS 17; 26-20, DAL

10, 6 = 4

GIANTS 27, RAIDERS 3; 44-7, NYG

24, 37 = 16

EAGLES 34, BUCS 13; 33-14, PHI

21, 19 = 2

VIKINGS 30, RAMS 7; 38-10, MIN

23, 28 = 5

49ERS 20, FALCONS 16; 45-10, ATL

4, 35 = 31

CARDINALS 30, TEXANS 27; 28-21, ARI

3, 7 = 4

PATRIOTS 23, BRONCOS 20; 20-17, DEN

3, 3 = 0

JAGUARS 31, SEAHAWKS 27; 41-0, SEA

4, 41 = 37

COLTS 30, TITANS 17; 31-9, IND

13, 22 = 9

7-6

2 comments:

Nick Pomazak said...

wow thanks for the analysis! i was pissed when hauschka missed that fg that would have put the ravens over the vikings....that was an upset pick and it almost came in....

Oli Porter said...

my brain hurts after reading this.