I like things the way they are. It's not perfect, but it makes for an intriguing Rubik's Cube of possibilities, especially given what happened in Columbus yesterday.
ANOTHER #1 BITES THE DUST
Illinois rushed for 260 yards, opening up room for Juice Williams to finish things off with 4 TD passes, and the 8-3 Illinois Fighting Illini threw the BCS standings into a state of upheaval by knocking off the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes 28-21 in Columbus.
So with the Buckeyes slipping out of the National Title game for the time being, who benefits?
OREGON
The Ducks had the week off, but they'll enter next week as #2. As you might be able to deduce, the top 2 teams in the BCS standings play for the championship, so they control their own destiny. Their toughest test will come when they travel to face wildly inconsistent UCLA in two weeks. They have a huge advantage in that they don't have to play a conference title game. They have a huge disadvantage in that this is the same team that got its ass handed to them by BYU in its bowl game last year, so they are my prime candidate to be exposed next.
THEY'LL GET TO NOLA IF:
The Ducks have the easiest road. A home game against Arizona should be a gimme. A roadie at UCLA less so, and then a rivalry game at home against Oregon State. All 3 are games the Ducks should win, and will need to if they want a title shot.
MISSOURI/KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
All 3 of these teams rolled in conference games yesterday. Oklahoma trounced Baylor 52-21 behind 3 TD passes for Sam Bradford and 3 rushing touchdowns for DeMarco Murray. Kansas handled Oklahoma State in a nationally televised night game in Stillwater, 43-28. Mizzou thumped Texas A+M 40-26 in Columbia. Missouri plays at Kansas in 2 weeks, with the winner likely going to the Big 12 title game to face Oklahoma.
THEY'LL GET TO NOLA IF:
The Big 12 champ will probably only get in if either LSU loses the SEC title game, or if Oregon doesn't win the Pac 10. If that happens, Kansas would be in for sure because the only way they are Big 12 champs is if they finish unbeaten. Oklahoma or Missouri would have to hope the BCS supercomputer deems them more worthy than some other potential 1 loss BCS conference champs, beginning with..
WEST VIRGINIA
The 8-1 Mountaineers knocked off Louisville when QB Patrick White broke a 50 yard TD run with just over a minute remaining. They'll be tested severely when they go on the road to face 8-2 Cincinnati next week.
THEY'LL GET TO NOLA IF:
Oregon needs to lose. LSU probably does too, because the chances of UWV getting BCS love over the Big 12 champs are slim.
OHIO STATE
Yes, that brings us back to the Buckeyes. Of course, OSU needs to beat Michigan next week. From there, it's not as impossible as you might think.
THEY'LL GET TO NOLA IF:
Oregon or LSU lose, and Kansas doesn't win the big 12. Then, the Buckeyes go back in the one loss BCS conference champion hopper with West Virginia, either Missouri or Oklahoma, and a team that could still come out of nowhere to host the national title game...
ARIZONA STATE
The Sun Devils have one loss, but because it was to Oregon a mere two weeks ago, they've been buried near the bottom of the top 10. However, if they win at home against USC in two weeks, then take care of business at home against Arizona, they would finish the regular season with only one loss. If Oregon does not win out, that would make the Sun Devils the Pac 10 champs, and more than that the Pac 10 champs with only one loss.
THEY'LL GET TO NOLA IF:
Stay with me. Of course, ASU needs to win out (including beating USC) and Oregon needs to lose. Kansas needs to not win the Big 12. It wouldn't hurt if LSU lost the SEC title game, but it's not 100% necessary. Michigan beating Ohio State probably is necessary. West Virginia stumbling would complete the complicated spell. However, simply winning the Pac 10 while Ohio State and Kansas lose a game may just be enough to get them in. That would probably leave it between West Virginia and the Sun Devils, and they could win that computerized showdown.
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